Big 12 win totals (Part 2)
Houston (O/U:8.5)
I was all in on Houston last year to take a big jump. And they sure did, winning 9 games and revitalizing Connor Weigman. I was surprised to find out they landed Makhi Hughes this offseason. He was one of the best backs in the country at Tulane in 2024, then transferred to Oregon and somehow disappeared despite them using 5 running backs a game. Maybe the most exciting part of their team is the freshman QB Keisean Henderson, who many considered to be the top recruit in the country.
They should have no problem going 3-0 in the non-conference. So, can they go 6-3 in conference play? I don’t see it. I think there is some regression coming for the Cougars. While the schedule isn’t too challenging, there’s just almost no room for error with a number this high. Road games at Utah and Texas Tech mean they have to be near perfect to hit this over. I don’t see it. Under.
Iowa St. (O/U:3.5)
I had no idea what this number was going to be. I have no idea what to expect from this team. It’s an almost entirely new roster. I thought Jaylen Raynor would have made the jump to a power conference earlier in his career, but he stalled out and didn’t improve much after his freshman season.
Because I'm not familiar with almost anyone outside of the QBs on the roster, I must look purely at the schedule. They should go 2-1 in non-conference (although am I confident they will be Bowling Green? No. They might start former Oregon recruit Austin Novostad). They should only need 2 wins in conference play. I don't really see where the wins are coming from, but this total just feels too low for a program that's been pretty solid over the years. I don’t like it, but I have to say they’ll get to 4 wins. Over.
Kansas (O/U:3.5)
Okay, this is how I know I’m out of the CFB loop. 3.5?? For Lance Leipold. I would’ve guessed this number was 6.5. How is this the number? Let’s do some digging. Looks like it’ll be Chase Jenkins or Cole Ballard at QB. Those aren’t ideal options at this level, but I like that they can pivot if one isn’t working out.
Similar to Iowa St., they should go 2-1 in the non-con, meaning just two wins are needed in conference. At that point, I don’t even care about the schedule. It’s the Big 12; Lance Leipold should be able to win 2 conference games. Some of these teams will unexpectedly fall apart. Shame on Kansas for not investing in this team with Leipold at the helm. I guess Bill Self needs the money more just to finish 6th in the conference. Over.
Kansas St. (O/U: 8.5)
I’ve been waiting for the Avery Johnson breakout for years now, and I’m starting to wonder if it’s ever going to happen. He’s one of my favorite quarterbacks to watch, and I’m glad he stayed at one school for four seasons. I’m just not convinced he can lead a 9-3 team. I do love the Collin Klein hire at head coach.
The schedule is an absolute cakewalk. No wonder this number is so high. Five of their first six games are at home, and the lone road game is at Cincinnati. Then they go to Arizona State and Colorado. Those aren’t exactly impossible road trips. I think there’s a real chance this team goes 11-1 and plays for the Big 12 title. Their toughest game might honestly be at TCU or Arizona State.
Despite all of that, I think eight wins is slightly more likely than nine. I’ve been burned by this team, and by Avery Johnson, too many times. Under.
Oklahoma St. (O/U:6)
It’s hard not to be excited about this team, at least compared to what they looked like the past two years under Gundy. It’s important to realize that Mestemaker isn’t just someone who put up numbers in the Group of Five. He has a chance to be a first-round pick next April. Obviously, a lot has to go right for that to happen, but he’s a legitimate candidate to be the best quarterback in the conference. It’s also worth noting that Caleb Hawkins scored 25 (!) rushing touchdowns as a freshman.
Schedule-wise, they have the pleasure of facing Oregon in Week 2, so they should be 2-1 entering conference play (barring a loss at Tulsa). The conference schedule is fairly favorable, especially early on. If they can steal one of the road games at West Virginia or Iowa State, I like this team to get to seven wins.
I put this number at 6 because it’s oscillating between 5.5 and 6.5. I would’ve gone over at 5.5 and under at 6.5, but 6 is interesting. I find it hard to believe this offense won’t be good. The defense is a huge question mark. I expect this team to get into a lot of shootouts. It’ll just come down to how they fare in those games. Going 5-4 in Big 12 play feels like a big jump for this team, so I’ll settle on the under.