Big 12 Win Totals (Part 3)
TCU (O/U:7)
Jaden Craig comes in from Harvard to play quarterback. I can’t pretend to know much about him, but I have a hard time believing he’ll be better than Hoover. I think this could turn into a year from hell for TCU and put Sonny Dykes firmly on the hot seat entering next season.
There are just too many toss-up games on this schedule. Home games against Kansas and West Virginia should be wins, but outside of that, it’s a lot of games that could go either way or are just difficult matchups. They could easily get to five or six wins by midseason, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if they lost their final four games. We’ll learn a lot about this team in Week 0 against UNC. I think this number is a little too optimistic. Under.
Texas Tech (O/U:11)
Will Hammond is still recovering from a torn ACL, but one of my hot takes is that I like Texas Tech better with Hammond than with Sorsby. Hammond is a legitimate threat with his legs, and I prefer him as a passer, too. Their non-conference schedule is a joke; they outspend every team in the conference by a decent margin, and they avoid both BYU and Utah. How is it possible that their toughest game is at Baylor?
I think 11 wins is much more likely than 12. They’ll probably slip up somewhere, but I can’t, in good faith, predict this team to lose two games. December will roll around, and we’ll still have no idea how good this team actually is. Over.
UCF (O/U: 5.5)
UCF became one of those automatic wins for me whenever I looked at another team's schedule. I think this could be the worst team in the conference, at least in terms of record. The schedule is brutal, and as cool as the Scott Frost reunion is, I just don't see this team getting to .500. The easiest pick of the conference. Under.
Utah (O/U:8.5)
It’ll be tough to convince me that going from Whittingham to Morgan Scalley isn’t a huge drop-off. The coaching change I’m most worried about, though, is Jason Beck’s departure. He was instrumental in getting the world to believe Devon Dampier is a good quarterback. Dampier is obviously a talented runner, but I’m highly skeptical they’ll have much success throwing the ball if everything isn’t schemed up perfectly.
Probably an irrelevant aside: backup quarterback Byrd Ficklin (incredible name) had 10 rushing touchdowns last year. He only started one game and still found the end zone 10 times. He’s a really fun player, and I’ll be excited to watch him potentially take over in ‘27, assuming he doesn’t end up in the transfer portal first.
I’m trying to find a way to pick the under, even though the schedule is so easy. If I were only looking at Utah’s history and this schedule, the over would be obvious despite the high number. I just have too many questions about this coaching staff. I need to see it before I believe in Utah post-Whittingham. Under.
West Virginia (O/U:6)
I mentioned in Part 1 that I haven’t been super in the loop when it comes to college football (although Cover 3 is starting to become a more regular listen). Even if I had been locked in, though, I’m not sure many people would be talking about West Virginia. It looks like we have a true quarterback battle on our hands between Scotty Fox Jr. and Michael Hawkins Jr. Neither option will blow anyone away, but I’d prefer to see Hawkins get another shot at a starting job. The Big 12 feels like a much better fit for him.
I couldn’t find odds for who will lead the country in rushing yards, but I’d lean toward Cam Cook. He’s back in the Big 12 after an awesome year at Jacksonville State. I’m almost worried about his body considering he’s paired with Rich Rodriguez. He might get the ball 30 times per game.
This feels like a team with both a low ceiling and a low floor. I want this team to be good, but the road games at Utah and Texas Tech leave them with very little margin for error. Five wins feels much more likely than seven. Under.